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NYSE Composite Index - 2012

YTD Price Probability

The following graph plots the year-to-date performance of the index for 2012 compared to the probability calculated by a random walk model.

Initial Value: 7477.03

Hist. Volatility: 1.41%

Annual Drift: 7%

Final Value: 8443.51

Percentile: 64%

Predicted price distribution
Click on the image for the high resolution version.

The high to date and low to date prices of the stock plotted against a random walk model for 2012 (what's this?).